In the realm of cybersecurity, threat attribution is akin to the investigative methods of the legendary detective Sherlock Holmes. Just as Holmes used his acute observation skills and deductive reasoning to pinpoint the perpetrator in a mystery, threat attribution involves meticulously analyzing cyberattacks to trace their origins and identify the attackers. In his classic form, threat attribution experts gather clues and connect seemingly unrelated events to form a comprehensive understanding of the crime at hand.  

The Challenging Nature of Internet Obscurity 

Unfortunately, the nature of obscurity regarding the internet might even challenge the astute detective skills of Sherlock Holmes. In the case of cyberattacks, the butler or betrayed spouse didn’t do it. Instead, the perpetrators rarely have any relation to the victim and are usually smart enough not to leave obvious clues. Seasoned threat actors employ techniques like IP address spoofing, botnets, VPN tunnels, and the dark web to obscure their tracks, making their identification a task for only the most skilled investigators. 

In fact, not only do active cybercriminals work hard to disguise themselves during their reconnaissance missions and attacks, they will even mimic the tactics and indicators of other hacking groups to throw investigators off the trail. This deliberate misdirection can lead investigators astray, not only causing delays in the investigation but also potentially leading to the misidentification of suspects. The prospect of accusing the wrong individuals adds another layer of complexity and potential embarrassment to the already challenging task of cyber threat attribution. 

What is Threat Attribution? 

Threat attribution in cybersecurity refers to the process of identifying the origin or source of a cyberattack. This involves analyzing various digital footprints left by the attackers, such as malware signatures, IP addresses, and attack methods. The goal is to trace the attack back to specific individuals, groups, or nation-states. Accurate threat attribution is crucial for understanding attackers’ motives, preventing future attacks, and potentially pursuing legal action. 

Threat intelligence plays a major role in providing detailed information about attack methodologies, known threat actors, and emerging cybersecurity threats. However, it’s a complex task due to the sophisticated methods often used by attackers to mask their identities and locations, making definitive attribution challenging. Unfortunately, few organizations have the advanced monitoring capabilities or expertise to detect and investigate elaborate attacks. 

IOCs are Still Relevant but not as Effective 

It would be nice if cyber criminals left some sort of calling card that would identify them after an attack. On some days they do however in the form of an indicator of compromise (IOC). An IOC is a piece of forensic data that suggests an organization’s network may have been breached and by whom. IOCs include various elements such as unusual IP addresses, malware signatures, suspicious domain names, or irregular network traffic patterns, which are used to detect potentially malicious activity.  

IOCs, while still relevant, have become less effective in the ever-evolving landscape of cybersecurity in the past ten years due to the increased sophistication that hackers and cybercriminals employ in their attacks. Cyber attack methodologies are highly dynamic today and utilize advanced methods such as polymorphic malware, encryption, fileless malware, and obfuscation techniques that allow them to operate under the radar. The changing evolution of attack techniques has forced digital forensic and incident response teams to modify their approaches as well.  

Threat Attribution Clues 

In the current digital era, masking one’s IP address is relatively straightforward for a knowledgeable internet user, and even more so for an experienced threat actor. This requires threat hunters to delve deeper, seeking out subtle indicators that may reveal the origins of attacks and the identity of their perpetrators. The clues are still around, you just have to have a highly trained eye to find them.   

Take for instance the code behind a ransomware or malware attack. Like handwriting, each programmer has a unique style that dictates how they structure their code, name variables, and handle errors. Additional subtleties might include time stamps that hint at the attacker’s time zone, the use of a particular native language, or awkward language translations in the code. The frequent employment of specific coding libraries or tools might also point to connections with certain groups or geographical regions. Recognizing these intricate details is crucial in the nuanced field of cyber threat hunting. 

Using The MITRE ATT&CK Framework 

To remain vigilant in the art of early attack detection and identification, security teams are deeply engaged in studying the tactics, techniques, and procedures used by known attackers today. TTP analysis is heavily used in threat attribution to dissect how an attacker might operate. Threat hunters look at the hows and whys of a data exfiltration attack and what procedures and techniques were used to infiltrate the network such as a phishing email. Collectively, these help in understanding the attacker’s behavior, capabilities, and objectives. 

These TTPs are systematically documented within the MITRE ATT&CK Framework, a globally accessible knowledge base of adversary TTPs based on real-world observations. The framework allows security teams to map observed attack patterns to the framework to identify possible attackers and anticipate what the next move or target might be. It also serves as a valuable tool for training security professionals, enabling them to more quickly and effectively prepare for and respond to a variety of cyber threats. 

Speed is also Important 

The fact is that there is no golden path in cybersecurity today. Defenders must adeptly utilize the tools and information at their disposal. Along with halting the spread of an attack and pinpointing the perpetrator, these actions need to be executed swiftly. This urgency is key because once an attack commences, it can escalate rapidly, making speed a critical element in effective cyber.  

Conclusion 

Sherlock Holmes in his stories always wrapped up his cases with a definitive conclusion. Unfortunately, threat attribution in cybersecurity isn’t always as definitive. While the efforts of threat attribution may seem ambiguous to the untrained eye, it is an essential exercise in the cybersecurity domain today that will play a vital role in shaping future defense strategies and policies.